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Welcome to the 2023 Week 12 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
Week 12 marked the 3rd week in a row where all 8 of the top ranked teams won. Over the weekend, there was exactly 1 ranked team that lost to a lower ranked or unranked team, and we already had Clemson favored in that game over North Carolina. It was a chalk week that preserved the tension of the season yet again, as we now find ourselves racing to a hurried climax. We know there are 8 real contenders (apologies to Louisville) for the CFP, and that list of 8 will trim down to 5 at a maximum. There remains a chance for serious debate and chaos, but that only happens with upsets, and we may not see a single one before the CFP.
Let’s talk about the scenarios at play.
Odds Georgia, Alabama, Florida State, Washington, Oregon and Texas all win next week: 38.4%
Lowest single game odds: Oregon over Oregon State at 76.1%
The odds are in favor of someone losing, but that’s been the case for 3 weeks now, and it hasn’t happened. The most likely single scenario is that all will win again setting us up for a “5 games for 4 spots” dynamic with all sorts of cross game implications for the CFP selection process. We have not yet had a controversial top 4 (by the data) in the CFP era. Despite the TCU/Baylor vs Ohio State problem in 2014, Ohio State again after losing to Purdue, 2 loss Penn State vs Ohio State, covid Ohio State, and Ohio State vs Alabama (wow, lots of Ohio State!) there hasn’t been a ton of public outcry at the committee selections either. They generally have gotten it right, though by the data it hasn’t ever really been that hard. This year could change that. There are enough scenarios at play that create problems with the resumes that the committee may get it wrong this year for the first time. Let’s look at how various potential resumes would stack up.
Immediate Takeaways:
There are 5 teams with a path to being an unbeaten Power 5 team. We have never seen an unbeaten Power 5 champion left out of the CFP. It’s unlikely this will be the first, even if Florida State is without their starting QB and down on resume to other contenders.
Ohio State is surprisingly high even with a loss to Iowa in the Big Ten title game. This is likely due to the fact that a win over Michigan on the road would be the strongest win of the entire football season. In reality there would be some regression on team strength with a loss to Iowa, so the Overall Resume would diminish some, but they’d certainly be in consideration still. TCU last year is an example of a Power 5 team going unbeaten in regular season play but losing the conference title and making the CFP field.
If Washington loses to Washington State but then wins the Pac-12, the strongest possibility is that they fall behind Alabama and Texas, putting their CFP spot in jeopardy. By overall resume, the Huskies should remain in contention in that scenario, and as we have it would still have a legitimate argument to be selected over both Texas and Alabama, though there’s almost no chance that happens.
For the “Alabama should jump Texas if they beat Georgia” folks, the resumes would still be super tight, so we’d continue to advocate for Head-to-Head results to be applied in the Longhorn’s favor.
The ACC is in trouble if it’s not 13-0 Florida State. 12-1 FSU and 12-1 Louisville are so far back that there’s no real shot they get in. We are being generous in marking a 12-1 ACC champion as still alive, because the data suggests that they are basically out with both sitting behind the 11-1 Michigan/Ohio State loser with 2 other Power 5 champs likely ahead at 12-1 or 13-0 plus the Michigan/Ohio State winner.
Why is 12-1 Oregon so low? They are just behind on Raw Resume and never seem to make up enough ground to close the gap to the top teams. If they are selected ahead of 12-1 Alabama or 12-1 Texas the committee has made a mistake. An over evaluation of team strength is their best continued hope.
Let’s take a look at the Week 12 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
We’ve made a minor adjustment in the Raw Resume evaluation that shows up this week. We’ve essentially made it more meaningful when a team distinguishes themselves via Raw Resume over the course of the season, since the dispersion of Raw Resume ratings wasn’t quite what we wanted it to be. You’ll notice a little less of the “waterfall” effect in the Overall Resume visualization this week as a result, but this should more closely align with real resume value for each team.
This is the week Washington should move ahead of Florida State. There should really be no excuse to remain as has been. Washington has the best raw resume in the country and rates as the stronger team.
Georgia continues to close the gap at the top, both on team strength and raw resume. The Bulldogs are not yet in a #1 position on either rating, but they are now comfortably in the top 4.
Don’t sleep on Oklahoma, who has been underrated for several weeks now in the AP and CFP rankings. The Sooners still have a top 10 overall resume.
In the battle for the top G5 resume, James Madison still has the best overall resume, but Liberty has pulled ahead on Team Strength, and should be the highest rated team in a fair and balanced ranking. For those thinking it’s the AAC champ’s to lose, note that Troy, Toledo and UNLV are all at or ahead of SMU and UTSA on overall resume, and all within range (or ahead of) Tulane. Tulane can still build on their overall resume with wins over UTSA and SMU, which could finally elevate them ahead of the other G5 hopefuls, but they shouldn’t be ahead right now.
Reasonable Committee Rankings assuming some variance between pure team strength and a balanced resume perspective:
Our projection of the committee Top 25 is as follows:
Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Washington
Florida State
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Missouri
Louisville
Penn State
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
LSU
Arizona
Oregon State
Iowa
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Tulane
NC State
North Carolina
Liberty
Clemson
Unexpected results from Week 12 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Now let’s highlight a few Week 13 games worth watching
Notes:
The game of the season has finally arrived! Michigan hosts Ohio State as a 2.5-point favorite as we see it, within the home field advantage margin (Ohio State would be favored if at home). This sets up to be a defensive battle and close deep into the 4th quarter in a low scoring game. It was close last year until Michigan broke it open with a few late scores. We can’t wait to see what happens this year!
The second-best game of the week will be on a loaded Friday slate featuring Oregon and Oregon State in their last meeting as conference foes. The Beavers would dearly love to ruin the Duck’s CFP hopes in an epic finish to the conference rivalry.
No other CFP contending team plays in a game with <79% win odds, so any other close game with a top team will be notable. There are lots of traditionally great rivalry games amongst the rest of the slate, so don’t be surprised if there is an unexpected close game from that group.
The best Group of 5 game will be amongst Tulane and UTSA, with obvious AAC Title Game implications and potential New Year 6 bowl representation on the line. Don’t skip out though on the surprisingly competitive and highly rated New Mexico State, fresh off of an upset against Auburn, hosting FCS turned FBS newcomer Jacksonville State.
That’s all we have for the Week 12. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)