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Welcome to the 2023 Week 13 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
We are in the end game now. There are 8 teams alive for the CFP. 8 teams that have gone a collective 91-1 against all other opposition. 8 teams that have a total of 4 losses, 3 self-inflicted from within, forced by interplay. 4 unbeaten teams from 4 power 5 conferences with a chance to win their way into the playoffs. 3 more with a chance to finish as 1-loss power 5 champions. 1 more waiting for the right string of chaos to open a door almost completely closed for now. Let’s look at the potential playoff resumes for the contending teams.
Of several observations we’ll make, the first is that there are still 4 teams who control independent destinies that may mostly nullify the CFP debate. Michigan, Georgia and Washington all have a path to a top 3 resume as an unbeaten power 5 champion. Florida State has a lot of question marks because of the injury to Jordan Travis at QB and a much weaker overall resume for the season. Still, the Seminoles have a path to being an unbeaten power 5 champion, and I don’t see any path that leaves them out should they achieve that. We’ll know if there’s a path to being left out if FSU remains behind Ohio State in the committee rankings this week, or if they are jumped by Oregon or Texas. Otherwise, we are penciling them in should they win the ACC.
At this point Michigan is almost guaranteed to be in. The Wolverines have a top 4 resume win or lose in the Big Ten title game given their current strength rating, and Ohio State should serve as a nice backstop in the event that the Buckeyes remain ahead of Texas in this week’s committee rankings, almost a guarantee. The only viable path to 12-1 Michigan being left out is if Georgia and Florida State win their conferences, Texas dominates Oklahoma State, and either Washington wins or Oregon dominates in the rematch for the Pac-12. The distance between where Michigan will be this week (#2) and where Texas will be (#7) with Ohio State likely at #5 or #6 means Michigan would have to lose, and Texas would have to do enough to jump both Ohio State and Michigan by beating Oklahoma State. It’s possible, but unlikely. By the data the path to being overtaken for a CFP spot is a loss that reduces the strength rating by a large enough margin for Texas to catch them.
At this point you would think that the Washington/Oregon winner will be in the CFP, and the committee may hold that position, but the data tells a different story. As of this posting, Oregon has the 8th strongest overall resume amongst the 8 contending teams, and if Oregon wins the Pac-12 title game and strength ratings remain as they are now the Ducks would be subject to being behind 13-0/12-1 Michigan, 13-0 Georgia/12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Texas. All of that plus 13-0 Florida State getting in would put Oregon in the #5 spot and out of the CFP. The committee doesn’t like shuffling teams around when everyone wins though, so if they think Oregon is better despite being behind on resume then so be it, but the data shows a clear path to the Pac-12 champ being left out of the CFP if the Ducks pull out the win.
The Texas Longhorns are in a tough spot, not because of what the data shows, but because of what the committee might do. UT should have been ahead of Oregon for weeks, and the overall resume backs that up. If Texas remains behind Oregon despite winning the Big 12 at 12-1, that would limit the path to the CFP to an Alabama upset over Georgia, or a Louisville upset over Florida State. Neither are likely to happen. Going into last week we knew that Michigan/Ohio State would trim down to just one of those teams. We knew Washington/Oregon would thin to a single likely contender. We knew that Georgia/Alabama would produce a single sure CFP team. Texas and Florida State do not play, and I don’t know if there is anything Texas can do to get ahead of an unbeaten FSU of their own merit. That makes CFP admission hard because the path requires UT to jump ahead of one of the other 3 pairs. Texas did beat Alabama, so they have that feather in their cap, but that only matters if Alabama upsets Georgia. It would be oh so painful for the program to finally get “back” only to get left out in the last year of the 4 team CFP because of a last second loss to Oklahoma.
Here are the distinct paths to a top 4 resume for all contending teams (top 4 resume not the same as CFP top 4):
Michigan – Win // Lose to Iowa and still probably have a top 4 overall resume
Georgia – Win // Lose to Alabama and Texas loses, Oregon loses (or Washington’s resume falls behind), and maybe Florida State loses so the Seminoles don’t jump Georgia
Washington – Win // Loss to Oregon and Texas loss, probably Alabama loss (Georgia could end up ahead at 12-1), and maybe an FSU loss to prevent the Seminoles from jumping 12-1 Washington
Florida State – Win and Alabama loss, Texas loss, Oregon loss // probably in at 13-0, just not with a top 4 resume
Texas – Win // Lose to Oklahoma State and losses from Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, plus the strength rating not falling enough to put Ohio State ahead, though that’s highly unlikely
Oregon – Win and not get jumped by Florida State or 12-1 Georgia (unlikely)
Alabama – Win
Ohio State – Losses by Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas (big enough loss to impact strength rating)
The projected outcome this week is wins by Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Florida State. This will leave us with an Oregon vs Texas debate with maybe a sprinkling of FSU thrown in. Here are the resumes for Texas and Oregon in full detail.
If we bucketize the raw resume we see the following:
Wins over poor to average FBS teams (check): Oregon = 6, Texas = 6
Wins over good FBS teams (!): Oregon = 3, Texas = 3
Wins over great teams not named Alabama (star): Oregon = 1, Texas = 1
Losses to teams slightly worse than them (x): Oregon = 1, Texas = 1
12th game: Oregon beats Portland State, Texas beats Alabama
The raw resume differential is essentially not that large if you traded Portland State for Alabama on Oregon’s resume. Still, that matters a great deal! Alabama losing to Texas is one of the most valuable results of the entire season. Oregon makes up for this raw resume differential by having the stronger team strength rating dispersion seen in the bottom of the resume graphic. This is where some of the close results for UT hurt, like the close call with Houston, Kansas State, and to some extent TCU/Iowa State. Oregon meanwhile has been murdering teams for most of the season, playing only close games against Texas Tech (early in season and yes, I acknowledge UT just blew them out) and Washington in the loss. That works in Oregon’s favor, but the differential on “eye test” is not greater than the substantial differential on “who you beat” which is why the Longhorn’s overall resume is so far ahead of the Duck’s resume.
Most likely Texas draws the short end of the stick and is left out, though by resume UT should be in the #3 spot. The committee justification to put Oregon ahead would be “avenging their loss” and “looking like the better team”, both of which would be true. Texas will not be afforded the opportunity to avenge their loss to Oklahoma, and Oregon does rate by the computers as the stronger team. The argument in favor of selecting Florida State will be that they are a 13-0 Power 5 Conference Champion. That’s about all they need to remain ahead of the Longhorns. Given Oklahoma State’s propensity to get blown out (see South Alabama and UCF) a Texas blowout is unlikely to move the needle of change the way the Longhorns need it to. This leaves us with a likely playoff of Georgia and Michigan in the #1/#2 slots, and Oregon/Florida State taking the #3/#4 spots in some order. We’ll see if that comes to pass, or if the winds of chaos blow in what has been the chalkiest season of the CFP era. Maybe we’ve been saving up the chaos for one final magnificent weekend of upheaval, or maybe chalk will hold again. Either way, we can’t wait to see how it all unfolds!
Let’s take a look at the Week 13 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
We’ve talked at length about the top 8 and the potential scenarios that impact the CFP. Let’s acknowledge where they should be right now. Michigan should be sitting in the #1 spot now that they have dethroned Ohio State, and Georgia should be squabbling with Washington for the #2 spot, but just barely behind. The committee elevated Georgia early for the #1 spot, when the strength ratings and raw resume evaluation did not support it. As the Bulldogs continue to win, the committee is unlikely to make a change. Then when the comparison is Michigan vs Washington, Michigan is rightly well ahead, slotting them in as the committee #2 and leaving Washington as the #3. We see what Washington has done for their raw resume, the best in the country, and see the justification in data for the Huskies to be ahead of Georgia for the #2 spot.
Florida State has been the committee #4, but we already saw Texas and Alabama sliding ahead both on team strength and raw resume. That has not changed this week, with Texas sitting in the #4 spot ahead of now 11-1 Ohio State at #5. Alabama’s resume took a tumble this week after the near loss to Auburn because of the impact to the Crimson Tide’s strength rating. Florida State then rightly slots in at #7. Oregon is at #8, not because of their demonstrated team strength, but because of the dreadful raw resume, which is as further behind Florida State than it is ahead of Missouri and Ole Miss. As they have been all season, the Ducks have been elevated by the committee purely off of the team strength rating with little consideration for the overall resume.
In the battle for the top G5 team, this week we see James Madison, now bowl eligible, still sitting atop the rankings, though the margin has now closed between the Dukes and both Liberty and Tulane. After trailing for most of the season, Tulane can finally establish themselves as the top G5 team, with the gap between them and Liberty miniscule at the moment, and Tulane having much more opportunity to elevate their resume with a win over SMU than Liberty has in potentially beating New Mexico State. Troy and Toledo are not too far behind, but neither is likely to pass Tulane/Liberty, so the New Year 6 bowl is likely down to these two teams. We would give the spot to Liberty this week, and there’s a very real chance we’d advocate for Tulane to take the spot if both win next week.
Reasonable Committee Rankings assuming some variance between pure team strength and a balanced resume perspective:
Our prediction for the Committee Top 25 is as follows:
Georgia
Michigan
Washington
Florida State
Ohio State (guessing between FSU/Oregon, though not surprised anywhere from 4-6)
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Missouri
Penn State
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
LSU
Louisville (Notre Dame is a buffer, but expect Louisville to fall to the mid-teens)
Arizona
Iowa
Notre Dame
Oklahoma State
Oregon State (the committee likes Oregon State, and did not punish Tennessee much for the 4th loss)
Tennessee
NC State
Tulane
Clemson
Liberty
Kansas State (likely to remain ranked though barely)
Just missed out: SMU, Toledo, Utah
Unexpected results from Week 13 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Now let’s highlight the conference championship games coming up
The top conference title games are Georgia (-3) over Alabama and Oregon (-3) over Washington, both coming in with almost identical game quality ratings of 95.89/95.88. These will be some of the best games of the season, which is not a surprise given that we are at the climax right before the playoffs.
Florida State (-9.5), Texas (-16.5) and Michigan (-19) are heavy favorites in their respective games this week, which means chaos is likely to come in the form of an unbeaten team falling in the SEC or Pac-12.
The odds that all 4 unbeaten teams remain so this week are low, sitting at just 15.03%. The odds are highly in favor of someone falling, opening the door for massive playoff controversy.
In the G5 conference title games, we see an odd projection, with SMU favored by 1 over Tulane. The strength rating systems can’t know that SMU is without their starting QB after an injury against Navy, but that game could be closer than we think. Given that New Mexico State absolutely drubbed the team that was 4th and 31 away from beating CFP contender Alabama, Liberty could make some noise with a blowout win. Liberty is currently a 13.5 point favorite over NMSU.
That’s all we have for the Week 13. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)